Search for: All records

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1 % floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km² (low), 160 km² (medium), or 300 km² (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km² (low), 240 km² (medium), or 370 km² (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from earthquake-cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise, and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally. 

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km²(low), 160 km²(medium), or 300 km²(high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km²(low), 240 km²(medium), or 370 km²(high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally. 

ABSTRACT We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time-independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19-member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time-dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics. 

ABSTRACT The 72-km-long Teton fault in northwestern Wyoming is an ideal candidate for reconstructing the lateral extent of surface-rupturing earthquakes and testing models of normal-fault segmentation. To explore the history of earthquakes on the northern Teton fault, we hand-excavated two trenches at the Steamboat Mountain site, where the east-dipping Teton fault has vertically displaced west-sloping alluvial-fan surfaces. The trenches exposed glaciofluvial, alluvial-fan, and scarp-derived colluvial sediments and stratigraphic and structural evidence of two surface-rupturing earthquakes (SM1 and SM2). A Bayesian geochronologic model for the site includes three optically stimulated luminescence ages (∼12–17  ka) for the glaciofluvial units and 16 radiocarbon ages (∼1.2–8.6  ka) for the alluvial-fan and colluvial units and constrains SM1 and SM2 to 5.5±0.2  ka, 1σ (5.2–5.9 ka, 95%) and 9.7±0.9  ka, 1σ (8.5–11.5 ka, 95%), respectively. Structural, stratigraphic, and geomorphic relations yield vertical displacements for SM1 (2.0±0.6  m, 1σ) and SM2 (2.0±1.0  m, 1σ). The Steamboat Mountain paleoseismic chronology overlaps temporally with earthquakes interpreted from previous terrestrial and lacustrine paleoseismic data along the fault. Integrating these data, we infer that the youngest Teton fault rupture occurred at ∼5.3  ka, generated 1.7±1.0  m, 1σ of vertical displacement along 51–70 km of the fault, and had a moment magnitude (Mw) of ∼7.0–7.2. This rupture was apparently unimpeded by structural complexities along the Teton fault. The integrated chronology permits a previous full-length rupture at ∼10  ka and possible partial ruptures of the fault at ∼8–9  ka. To reconcile conflicting terrestrial and lacustrine paleoseismic data, we propose a hypothesis of alternating full- and partial-length ruptures of the Teton fault, including Mw∼6.5–7.2 earthquakes every ∼1.2  ky. Additional paleoseismic data for the northern and central sections of the fault would serve to test this bimodal rupture hypothesis. 

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes. 

An experimental platform for dynamic diamond anvil cell (dDAC) research has been developed at the High Energy Density (HED) Instrument at the European X-ray Free Electron Laser (European XFEL). Advantage was taken of the high repetition rate of the European XFEL (up to 4.5 MHz) to collect pulse-resolved MHz X-ray diffraction data from samples as they are dynamically compressed at intermediate strain rates (≤10³ s⁻¹), where up to 352 diffraction images can be collected from a single pulse train. The set-up employs piezo-driven dDACs capable of compressing samples in ≥340 µs, compatible with the maximum length of the pulse train (550 µs). Results from rapid compression experiments on a wide range of sample systems with different X-ray scattering powers are presented. A maximum compression rate of 87 TPa s⁻¹was observed during the fast compression of Au, while a strain rate of ∼1100 s⁻¹was achieved during the rapid compression of N₂at 23 TPa s⁻¹.